Taliban in Kabul: Geopolitical implications for India

New Delhi: Surprising everyone, the Taliban has won a stunning military and political victory. The United States (US)-supported Afghan government led by President Ashraf Ghani could not stand up to the Taliban assaults and has ultimately surrendered.
In a lightning campaign, Taliban forces managed to reach the gates of Kabul in record time and Have now taken over power. According to a Reuters report former President has abdicated and moved to Tajikistan. It is being estimated that a monumental humanitarian tragedy is in the making and the fate of thousands of Afghan lives hangs in balance, not to speak of the modern values, democracy and liberties. Amid this crisis, a cold geopolitical calculation is needed.
The rapidly changing political and more importantly, military situation in Afghanistan has forced all major stakeholders to re-evaluate and adjust their strategies. India is no exception to this. As the shape of a new government led by the Taliban becomes clearer, India will have to find ways to maximize its policy options and minimize the damage to its interests. For now, protecting the immediate and most-important interests, security of the embassy staff and granting asylums and visas to India’s allies in Afghanistan is a priority.  Also Read Gunfire at Kabul airport kills 3 as Afghans flee Taliban rule A lot depends on the evolving international response to the victorious Taliban. The military forces of US and UK are still in Kabul and are busy evacuating their own nationals. The fate of thousands of Afghans who helped them remains unclear. However, as the Taliban has reached Kabul while the Americans are still there, the previously drawn plans will need to be adjusted. How will the US, UK and other western nations view the Taliban-ruled Afghanistan? Although the Taliban has entered Kabul ‘peacefully’, can they be given the real, much sought after prize of international recognition? China, Iran and Russia have already engaged the Taliban and it will be interesting to see how they deal with the new rulers of Kabul. Pakistan might actually feel a sense of accomplishment and perhaps would like to maximize its gains through the Taliban. Along with this, the domestic behavior of the Taliban will also be a factor to watch out for. The task of governing a diverse, difficult and complex country like Afghanistan is never easy. Therefore, a lot will also depend on how the domestic responses to Taliban rule pan out.  Kandahar: Taliban fighters patrol inside the city of Kandahar, southwest Afghanistan, Sunday, Aug. 15, 2021. AP/PTI( In this matrix, India has three core concerns that will contribute in making its policy towards Afghanistan. The first and foremost concern is the future of Pakistan-sponsored terrorism. Taliban-ruled Afghanistan may perhaps emerge as a terrorist breeding ground. Recent revelations indicate that Pulwama attack of 2019 was planned in the Helmand province (Afghanistan). In the evolving context, Pakistan-supported, India-focused terror groups like Jaish-e-Mohammed may perhaps shift (willingly or by force, prodded by their Pakistani handlers) their bases to Afghanistan.
It will help Pakistan to demonstrate to the international community that it has closed down terror bases and consequently, the pressure of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) might be reduced. It may perhaps be taken off the ‘Grey List’ as well and the financial squeeze applied by the FATF restrictions would be eased. It will certainly embolden Pakistan further.